Fela’s Prophecy and the Oil Industry: NNPCL’s Struggles, Dangote’s Ambitions, and the Future of Fuel Prices

Everybody run, run, run! Confusion everywhere. Several minutes later, police don go away, army don disappear, dem leave sorrow, blood, and tears, dem regular trade mark! This song was sang by Fela Anikulapo Kuti in 1977.

What Fela sang several years ago is akin to what has happened downstream of the oil and gas industry for decades now, i.e., vandalism, crude theft, fuel scarcity, the killing of businesses because of high energy cost, conspiracy theory of “Cabalization” of the oil and gas industry, etc.

The NNPCL is the most criticized, bashed, and abused public enterprise I have grown to know. What people say about the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) may be better music for the ears. But the criticisms would help the organizationto refine its processes to ensure it returns to its golden days. The NNPCL should use criticism to work harder to bring out the best in the organization and prove critics wrong.

We must all also do this when responding to those who criticize us. If people do not blame our actions or inactions, we will likely lapse into a deep state of inertia.

I am sure that if Dangote Refinery (DR) buys crude oil in Naira from October 1st, it will also mean that the NNPCL will pay Naira for crude oil to run its refineries. This will reduce the pressure on Naira and remove the bottlenecks of a dollar-driven importation of white products. We would also have other products we have over the years lost to previous export/import arrangements. The following “palongo” dance is when Dangote advocates for a subsidy for production instead of consumption.

Looking back at Dangote’s precedent in the sugar and cement industries, I am sure he would force the FG to package a subsidy and enhanced tax incentive regime for the Dangote Group (DR). Besides, Dangote would ensure that citizens pay the appropriate price for fuel at the pump. The good thing is that as we enter October, queues will have disappeared from gas stations.

With Dangote’s ambitious plans in motion, the pressure is on for the NNPCL to step up its game. As Dangote sets the bar high, the NNPCL must do everything in its power to ensure its plants are running efficiently. This competition will drive the next phase of our downstream, providing a solid foundation for the NNPCL to make a compelling case for production subsidies and tax incentives to be extended to the NNPC Group.

For you and I, it is now sure that we cannot pay anything less than N900 -N1,100 for a litre of petrol. The waiting game continues. Grace and peace!!!