Unveiling the Crystal Ball: A Retrospective on the Naira’s Journey to N1,000/$1 and the Unraveling of Foreign Exchange Dynamics in Nigeria

I had predicted that by December last year, we would hit N1,000/$1. Because of political reasons, many didn’t like me for it. Although the deadline was missed, the chicken finally came to roost in 2023, and the prediction has come to pass. I was wiser then, but those angry with the writer should be wiser now.

I arrived at my prediction because our foreign exchange management was of grave concern to non-specialists like me. Why so?

We cannot be discretionarily dashing dollars to a few friends at highly subsidized rates when fuel importers, manufacturers, and genuine investors do not have access to dollars for their businesses while at the same time sending the rest of us to street corners. Nigeria did the same thing in the past with oil blocks, which some past presidents dashed to friends as Christmas gifts. I saw that impact on our economy and reasoned that the Naira would only take a while to spiral southwards.

The administration of PBAT announced the single foreign exchange window in managing our foreign exchange regimes. Economists and bankers clapped and predicted that the silver bullet had arrived and would crash the dollar in a few months. But how can that be when the dollars in the closets and street corners are more than what the banks have to trade with?

I am not an economist, but I know that in advanced nations. one can only change currencies in their bureau-de-change, airports, and major hotels. Nobody hawks dollars or pounds on the streets like we do here, yet we expect the dollar to crash. How can? Since we are an import-dependent nation and are still running a parallel market, can those in the house who know to advise us on what we need to do to put the flying dollars in check?

Grace and peace!!!